From FOMO to Freedom: What's Really Happening in Our Market
Brisbane | Gold Coast | Sunshine Coast | Northern New South Wales
The headlines have moved from "boom" to "budget shock" almost overnight. The reality, as always, sits somewhere more interesting in between.
A Brisbane buyer who'd been priced out of the market for over a year, watching auctions get more frenzied as buyers overpaid for fear of missing out, found something had changed in the lead-up to the federal budget. Investors thinned at open homes. Properties that were once listed without a price guide suddenly carried one. Within weeks, that same buyer secured a Queenslander in Nundah at auction.
It's a useful real-world snapshot of what's playing out across the market right now.
The past few years were defined by scarcity, with many owners reluctant to sell for fear they couldn't find a suitable replacement. The stabilising market means buyers and sellers can finally move at a more comfortable pace, particularly for downsizers who'd been sitting on the sidelines. Less heat doesn't mean less opportunity. For genuine buyers, it means room to actually transact rather than getting swept up in a bidding frenzy.
Queensland's position in the national picture backs this up. According to Domain's FY2027 Forecast Report, Brisbane is forecast to remain in positive growth territory through to June 2027, supported by population growth, tight rental markets and ongoing supply shortages, while Sydney and Melbourne face the sharpest pullback, driven by greater rate sensitivity and investor withdrawal. Queensland isn't immune to the broader conditions. But it's facing them from a position of strength that NSW and Victoria simply don't share right now.
A Market in Transition, But Not Everywhere Equally
Domain's FY2027 Forecast Report draws a clear line between the markets under pressure and the ones still moving forward, and it's the clearest Queensland-versus-the-south picture we've seen in some time.
One of the more telling numbers: Queensland's investor lending share currently sits 9.7 percentage points above its decade average, while NSW sits at 43.4%, the highest of any state. Investor withdrawal in response to the tax changes is expected to be sharpest in NSW.
Queensland carries its own version of this exposure, but from a stronger underlying demand base. Population growth, tight rental markets and persistent supply shortfalls are expected to keep Brisbane in positive growth territory, even as rates of growth moderate from recent boom-era run-rates.
Domain's FY27 forecasts at a glance:
- Sydney: -7% to -3%
- Melbourne: -8% to -4%
- Brisbane: -3% to +7%
The range on Brisbane reflects genuine uncertainty, but even the downside scenario is a long way from what's expected further south.
The Prestige End Is Proving a Point
While the media has focused on what the budget might cost investors, Brisbane's, the Gold Coast's and the Sunshine Coast's prestige sectors have been quietly setting records.
Brisbane
New analysis shows Brisbane's prestige apartments sit roughly 33% below comparable Sydney pockets on median price, with equivalent quality and amenity. A Kangaroo Point penthouse at $14.75 million set a new suburb record in March. A New Farm apartment at newly launched Elysees sold for $5.5 million within a week of launch. As one buyer's agent put it, $10 million in Brisbane buys what $20 million would in equivalent house form, attainable luxury at a price point that still has room to run.
Gold Coast
Mermaid Beach hit a $3.35 million house median, up 32% in 12 months, with no new beachfront land to create supply. Broadbeach Waters posted a 15% price rise alongside a 46% surge in quarterly transactions, a leading indicator that buyers are moving with real conviction. At the apartment end, demand for large-format three-bedroom sky homes in Broadbeach has pushed prices up more than 45% in some buildings as downsizers compete for stock that isn't being built fast enough.
Sunshine Coast
Prestige buyers here are typically equity-rich and cash-transacting, largely insulated from rate movements. That shows in the pace: Buddina's suburb record broke three times in quick succession, moving from $7.5 million to $8.25 million to $9.75 million inside a few months. The prestige entry point sits at $2.4 million, below the national luxury threshold of $2.52 million, meaning Queensland still offers relative value at a level the market depth doesn't yet fully reflect.
The thread connecting all three: SEQ's prestige buyers are increasingly permanent and lifestyle-driven, not speculative. That's what makes the top end here more durable than the headline noise suggests.
One More Thing: AML Checks Are Now Live
From 1 July 2026, new Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing obligations apply to real estate professionals, meaning additional identity verification steps are now part of every transaction. Expect the process to feel a little more thorough, and come prepared. It's a compliance step, not a complication, and we'll guide you through it at every stage.