A Market Recalibrating, Not Retreating

Australia's property market has clearly turned a corner nationally, the sharpest quarterly value falls since December 2022, listings at their highest since 2020, and buyers taking their time. Sydney and Melbourne are leading that shift. South East Queensland is a different, more nuanced conversation.

Brisbane's median house price touched a record $1.21 million in the June quarter, capping 13 consecutive quarters of growth, still up 16.4% over the year. But the pace has clearly eased, to its weakest quarterly gain in six years, and the most recent read to the end of July has Queensland values sitting essentially flat over the past three months. Call it what it is: a market moving from momentum to selectivity. The gains of the past three years are real and banked; what's changing is how hard a property now has to work to justify its price. The fundamentals of all markets remain - well presented property with considered pricing, is achieving strong interest through to sale.

SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND SNAPSHOT

Rates held at 4.35% on 11 Aug for a second straight meeting. Nationally the market has cooled, dwelling values down 0.7% in July, listings at their highest since 2020, homes taking 44 days to sell vs 27 previously. Sydney/Melbourne/Canberra are leading the falls.

Brisbane is the story of resilience: house prices hit a record $1.21M in the June quarter (+16.4% YoY), 13 straight quarters of growth, but momentum has slowed to its weakest pace in six years. Brisbane units dipped -1.2% for the quarter (first fall in 3 years) though still +15.4% annually, suggesting investors are getting choosier, not walking away.

Northern NSW continues to defy a single storyline. Tweed's market still tracks the Gold Coast's fairly closely; Byron and the Northern Rivers more broadly, attract a distinctly different buyer.

QUEENSLAND LEADS CONSTRUCTION BOOM

While the resale market cools in more investor-led areas, the Gold Coast's development pipeline is running at genuine scale, around $9.8 billion in projects earmarked to commence this year across the city, adding roughly 5,890 units and 644 townhouses. Queensland as a whole now has a record ~50,000 homes under construction, and dwelling approvals jumped 33% in a single month (to 4,841), the clearest sign yet that supply is starting to answer the demand.

For anyone holding or considering a development site, that's a meaningfully different backdrop to six months ago.  Construction costs and financing remain real constraints, but underlying demand for well-located, appropriately zoned land hasn't gone anywhere.

TAKING THE TEMPERATURE OF LUXURY

Herron Todd White runs a monthly gauge of the prestige market, a 0–100 read, built from what their valuers are actually seeing with high-end buyers and vendors, not a price index. Above 60 reads as genuine competition for quality stock; below 40 tips toward a buyer's market.

In July, Brisbane sat at 62 and the Gold Coast at 65, both still comfortably "Warm," and among the strongest readings in the country alongside Perth (80). This month, the national score eased again, from 58 to 53, and Brisbane and the Gold Coast were named as the two markets driving that move. In plain terms: the country's best-performing prestige markets all year just recorded their first real cooling.

What hasn't changed: genuinely exceptional, turnkey homes are still commanding a premium, everywhere. It's dated stock, or anything needing real capital work, where the market is asking harder questions and the selling periods are stretching out. If you're bringing a considered, well-presented property to market, that's still a very different conversation to the headline number.